Dortmund have won each of their last six away games against Mainz, and even with a number of changes, we still think that the Champions League finalists will do enough to claim all three points in Saturday's contest.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 49.24%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 28.34% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.15%) and 2-0 (6.74%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (6.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.
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