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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 43.36%. A win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 35.45% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.37%) and 2-3 (4.84%). The likeliest Erzgebirge Aue win was 2-1 (7.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Erzgebirge Aue | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
35.45% ( 0.15) | 21.18% ( -0.06) | 43.36% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 72.22% ( 0.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 73.17% ( 0.37) | 26.82% ( -0.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 52.73% ( 0.47) | 47.26% ( -0.47) |
| Erzgebirge Aue Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.5% ( 0.24) | 16.5% ( -0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.77% ( 0.42) | 46.23% ( -0.42) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.5% ( 0.12) | 13.5% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.46% ( 0.24) | 40.54% ( -0.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| Erzgebirge Aue | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2-1 @ 7.24% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 4.35% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 4.35% ( 0.02)1-0 @ 4.01% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 3.62% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 2.17% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.96% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.96% ( 0.03)4-3 @ 1.31% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 0.98% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.5% Total : 35.45% | 1-1 @ 8.04% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 7.25% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 2.91% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 2.23% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.76% Total : 21.18% | 1-2 @ 8.05% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 5.37% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 4.84% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 4.47% ( -0.06)0-1 @ 4.46% ( -0.08)0-3 @ 2.98% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 2.69% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 2.42% ( 0.03)0-4 @ 1.49% ( -0.01)3-4 @ 1.46% ( 0.03)1-5 @ 1.08% ( 0.01)2-5 @ 0.97% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.09% Total : 43.36% |
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