Villarreal have only lost one of their last five La Liga games with Real Madrid and actually triumphed in both league fixtures between the two sides last term.
Real Madrid will not be at full strength for this contest, and taking into account Villarreal's form, we are expecting the Yellow Submarine, even with their injury problems, to be good enough for at least a point.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 41.66%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 34.82% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.04%) and 0-2 (5.84%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 2-1 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.56%). The actual scoreline of 4-4 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
0.02) 
-0.04) 
