Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 39.08%. A win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 32.86% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.09%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Pacos de Ferreira win was 0-1 (10.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.
0.12) 
-0.24) 
