SM
| Current Group G Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Hungary | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Serbia | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Montenegro | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Bulgaria | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 5 | Lithuania | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uzbekistan win with a probability of 45.73%. A win for Bulgaria had a probability of 29.31% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uzbekistan win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.25%) and 0-2 (7.68%). The likeliest Bulgaria win was 1-0 (7.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.81%).
| Result | ||
| Bulgaria | Draw | Uzbekistan |
29.31% ( -0.11) | 24.96% ( -0.05) | 45.73% ( 0.16) |
| Both teams to score 55.39% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.36% ( 0.16) | 47.64% ( -0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.16% ( 0.15) | 69.84% ( -0.14) |
| Bulgaria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.01% ( 0) | 29.99% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.89% ( 0) | 66.11% ( 0) |
| Uzbekistan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.12% ( 0.14) | 20.88% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.42% ( 0.21) | 53.58% ( -0.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bulgaria | Draw | Uzbekistan |
| 1-0 @ 7.54% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 7.11% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 4.54% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 2.86% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.24% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.82% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.21% Total : 29.32% | 1-1 @ 11.81% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.26% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 5.57% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.96% | 0-1 @ 9.81% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 9.25% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 7.68% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 4.83% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 4.01% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.91% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.89% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 1.57% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 1.14% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.63% Total : 45.73% |
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