Though the slow process of introducing up-and-coming players into the Bulgaria squad has started to have some effect, they remain vulnerable defensively and even a second-string Croatia side can pick them off at least once over the course of 90 minutes.
While experimentation with systems and personnel may dilute the second half, it could be a competitive duel between the two Balkan counterparts, with future selection at stake for several players taking to the field in Qatar's second city.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 65.13%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Bulgaria had a probability of 10.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 1-0 with a probability of 20.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (16.24%) and 3-0 (8.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.13%), while for a Bulgaria win it was 0-1 (6%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Croatia in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Croatia.
