SM
| Current League C4 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Bulgaria | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Georgia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | North Macedonia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Gibraltar | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current League C4 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Bulgaria | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Georgia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | North Macedonia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Gibraltar | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a North Macedonia win with a probability of 47.77%. A win for Bulgaria had a probability of 29.78% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a North Macedonia win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.82%) and 0-2 (6.38%). The likeliest Bulgaria win was 2-1 (7.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Bulgaria | Draw | North Macedonia |
29.78% ( -0.03) | 22.45% ( 0.01) | 47.77% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 64.58% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.3% ( -0.06) | 35.7% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.23% ( -0.06) | 57.77% ( 0.06) |
| Bulgaria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.32% ( -0.05) | 23.68% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.21% ( -0.07) | 57.79% ( 0.07) |
| North Macedonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.61% ( -0.02) | 15.39% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.8% ( -0.03) | 44.2% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bulgaria | Draw | North Macedonia |
| 2-1 @ 7.08% ( -0) 1-0 @ 5.25% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 3.78% 3-1 @ 3.4% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.18% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.82% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.22% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.15% ( -0)Other @ 2.91% Total : 29.78% | 1-1 @ 9.83% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.62% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.64% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.98% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.37% Total : 22.45% | 1-2 @ 9.19% ( 0) 0-1 @ 6.82% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 6.38% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 5.73% 2-3 @ 4.13% ( -0)0-3 @ 3.98% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 2.68% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.93% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.86% ( 0)1-5 @ 1% ( -0)3-4 @ 0.93% ( -0)Other @ 3.12% Total : 47.77% |
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