SM
| Current League C4 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Bulgaria | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Georgia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | North Macedonia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Gibraltar | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current League C4 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Bulgaria | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Georgia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | North Macedonia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Gibraltar | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bulgaria win with a probability of 40.37%. A win for Georgia had a probability of 34.87% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bulgaria win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.36%) and 2-0 (6.3%). The likeliest Georgia win was 1-2 (8.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Bulgaria | Draw | Georgia |
40.37% ( -0.05) | 24.76% ( 0.02) | 34.87% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 58.35% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.22% ( -0.07) | 44.79% ( 0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.86% ( -0.06) | 67.15% ( 0.07) |
| Bulgaria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.86% ( -0.05) | 22.15% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.47% ( -0.08) | 55.53% ( 0.08) |
| Georgia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.95% ( -0.01) | 25.05% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.28% ( -0.02) | 59.73% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bulgaria | Draw | Georgia |
| 2-1 @ 8.73% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.36% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 6.3% ( -0)3-1 @ 4.39% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.17% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.04% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.65% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.19% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.14% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.4% Total : 40.37% | 1-1 @ 11.57% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.04% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 5.55% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.76% | 1-2 @ 8.01% ( 0) 0-1 @ 7.68% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 5.32% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.7% 2-3 @ 2.79% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.45% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.28% 2-4 @ 0.97% ( -0)Other @ 2.68% Total : 34.87% |
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