SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Albania | 8 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Czech Republic | 8 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Poland | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 4 | Moldova | 8 | -3 | 10 |
| 5 | Faroe Islands | 8 | -11 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Poland win with a probability of 70.77%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for Estonia had a probability of 9.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Poland win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.6%) and 3-0 (10.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.82%), while for a Estonia win it was 0-1 (4.53%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Poland would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Poland | Draw | Estonia |
70.77% ( 0.61) | 19.71% ( -0.12) | 9.52% ( -0.49) |
| Both teams to score 36.25% ( -1.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.52% ( -0.77) | 54.47% ( 0.77) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.16% ( -0.65) | 75.83% ( 0.65) |
| Poland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.72% ( -0.06) | 14.27% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.93% ( -0.11) | 42.06% ( 0.11) |
| Estonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 42.29% ( -1.49) | 57.71% ( 1.49) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 10.56% ( -0.84) | 89.43% ( 0.84) |
| Score Analysis |
| Poland | Draw | Estonia |
| 1-0 @ 16.03% ( 0.44) 2-0 @ 15.6% ( 0.4)3-0 @ 10.12% ( 0.23)2-1 @ 8.58% ( -0.18)3-1 @ 5.57% ( -0.13)4-0 @ 4.93% ( 0.11)4-1 @ 2.71% ( -0.07)5-0 @ 1.92% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.11)5-1 @ 1.06% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.7% Total : 70.74% | 1-1 @ 8.82% ( -0.16) 0-0 @ 8.24% ( 0.24)2-2 @ 2.36% ( -0.16)Other @ 0.3% Total : 19.71% | 0-1 @ 4.53% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 2.42% ( -0.16)0-2 @ 1.25% ( -0.08)Other @ 1.32% Total : 9.52% |
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