SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Equatorial Guinea | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Ivory Coast | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Nigeria | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea-Bissau win with a probability of 82.81%. A draw had a probability of 12.2% and a win for Djibouti had a probability of 5.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guinea-Bissau win was 0-2 with a probability of 14.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (13.1%) and 0-1 (11.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.72%), while for a Djibouti win it was 1-0 (2.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Guinea-Bissau would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Djibouti | Draw | Guinea-Bissau |
5.01% ( 0.05) | 12.18% ( 0.02) | 82.81% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 37.47% ( 0.32) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.53% ( 0.2) | 38.46% ( -0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.24% ( 0.21) | 60.76% ( -0.21) |
| Djibouti Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 40.28% ( 0.33) | 59.72% ( -0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 9.49% ( 0.17) | 90.51% ( -0.17) |
| Guinea-Bissau Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.02% ( 0.02) | 6.98% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 74.43% ( 0.07) | 25.56% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Djibouti | Draw | Guinea-Bissau |
| 1-0 @ 2.15% ( 0) 2-1 @ 1.48% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.38% Total : 5.01% | 1-1 @ 5.72% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 4.17% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 1.96% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.33% Total : 12.18% | 0-2 @ 14.77% ( -0.09) 0-3 @ 13.1% ( -0.07)0-1 @ 11.09% ( -0.09)0-4 @ 8.72% ( -0.03)1-2 @ 7.62% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 6.76% ( 0.04)0-5 @ 4.64% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 4.5% ( 0.03)1-5 @ 2.39% ( 0.02)0-6 @ 2.06% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.74% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 1.16% ( 0.02)1-6 @ 1.06% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.19% Total : 82.8% |
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