SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Papua New Guinea win with a probability of 50.68%. A win for Sri Lanka had a probability of 24.99% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Papua New Guinea win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.61%) and 0-2 (8.78%). The likeliest Sri Lanka win was 1-0 (6.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sri Lanka | Draw | Papua New Guinea |
24.99% ( 0.05) | 24.33% ( 0.04) | 50.68% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 53.93% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.07% ( -0.13) | 47.93% ( 0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.89% ( -0.12) | 70.11% ( 0.12) |
| Sri Lanka Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.52% ( -0.03) | 33.48% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.88% ( -0.03) | 70.11% ( 0.03) |
| Papua New Guinea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.07% ( -0.08) | 18.93% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.57% ( -0.14) | 50.43% ( 0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sri Lanka | Draw | Papua New Guinea |
| 1-0 @ 6.93% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 6.31% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 3.79% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.3% 3-2 @ 1.92% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.38% ( 0)Other @ 2.34% Total : 24.99% | 1-1 @ 11.54% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.34% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 5.26% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.06% ( -0)Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.33% | 0-1 @ 10.54% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 9.61% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 8.78% 1-3 @ 5.33% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 4.87% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.92% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 2.22% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 2.03% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.21% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.17% Total : 50.68% |
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