SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Iraq | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Japan | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Indonesia | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Vietnam | 3 | -4 | 0 |
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Saudi Arabia | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Thailand | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 3 | Oman | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Kyrgyzstan | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vietnam win with a probability of 39.8%. A win for Thailand had a probability of 33.75% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vietnam win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (6.95%). The likeliest Thailand win was 0-1 (9.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Vietnam | Draw | Thailand |
39.8% ( 0.11) | 26.45% ( 0.01) | 33.75% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 52.39% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.64% ( -0.06) | 52.36% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.95% ( -0.05) | 74.05% ( 0.05) |
| Vietnam Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.18% ( 0.03) | 25.82% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.22% ( 0.04) | 60.78% ( -0.04) |
| Thailand Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.63% ( -0.11) | 29.37% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.64% ( -0.13) | 65.35% ( 0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vietnam | Draw | Thailand |
| 1-0 @ 10.26% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.52% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 6.95% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 3.85% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.14% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.36% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.3% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.06% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.37% Total : 39.8% | 1-1 @ 12.58% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.58% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 5.22% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 0.96% ( -0)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.45% | 0-1 @ 9.29% ( -0) 1-2 @ 7.71% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 5.69% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 3.15% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.32% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.49% Total : 33.75% |
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