SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | France | 3 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Greece | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Netherlands | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Republic of Ireland | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 5 | Gibraltar | 3 | -9 | 0 |
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | France | 3 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Greece | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Netherlands | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Republic of Ireland | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 5 | Gibraltar | 3 | -9 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Republic of Ireland win with a probability of 43.93%. A win for Gibraltar had a probability of 34.36% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Republic of Ireland win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.42%) and 1-0 (5.15%). The likeliest Gibraltar win was 1-2 (7.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Republic of Ireland would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Republic of Ireland | Draw | Gibraltar |
43.93% ( -55.12) | 21.71% ( 20.82) | 34.36% ( 34.3) |
| Both teams to score 69.78% ( 62.38) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 70.16% ( -18) | 29.83% ( 18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 49.01% ( -25.55) | 50.99% ( 25.55) |
| Republic of Ireland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.5% ( -13.83) | 14.5% ( 13.82) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.5% ( -38.45) | 42.49% ( 38.45) |
| Gibraltar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.61% ( 74.16) | 18.38% ( -74.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.48% ( 50.2) | 49.52% ( -50.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Republic of Ireland | Draw | Gibraltar |
| 2-1 @ 8.42% ( 7.81) 3-1 @ 5.42% ( 4.41)1-0 @ 5.15% ( 2.03)2-0 @ 4.97% ( -2.83)3-2 @ 4.59% ( 4.55)3-0 @ 3.2% ( -9.79)4-1 @ 2.62% ( 1.36)4-2 @ 2.22% ( 2.17)4-0 @ 1.54% ( -14.7)4-3 @ 1.25% ( 1.25)5-1 @ 1.01% ( -0.25)Other @ 3.55% Total : 43.93% | 1-1 @ 8.72% ( 8.48) 2-2 @ 7.13% ( 7.11)0-0 @ 2.66% ( 2.04)3-3 @ 2.59% ( 2.59)Other @ 0.61% Total : 21.71% | 1-2 @ 7.38% ( 7.37) 0-1 @ 4.51% ( 4.47)1-3 @ 4.17% 2-3 @ 4.03% ( 4.02)0-2 @ 3.82% ( 3.82)0-3 @ 2.16% 1-4 @ 1.77% 2-4 @ 1.71% 3-4 @ 1.1% 0-4 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.81% Total : 34.36% |
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