J1 League | Gameweek 22
Jul 6, 2024 at 10.30am UK
Denka Big Swan Stadium
We said: Albirex Niigata 1-1 Sagan Tosu
Given the desire to move away from the bottom three, both teams will be eager to collect maximum points. However, there is also value in simply avoiding defeat, and a low-scoring draw playing out would not surprise us.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Albirex Niigata win with a probability of 49.56%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 26.86% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Albirex Niigata win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.98%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 1-2 (6.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.
| Result |
| Albirex Niigata | Draw | Sagan Tosu |
49.56% ( 0.71) | 23.58% ( 0.05) | 26.86% ( -0.76) |
| Both teams to score 58.2% ( -0.82) |
| 56.88% ( -0.8) | 43.11% ( 0.81) |
| 34.48% ( -0.8) | 65.52% ( 0.8) |
| 82.48% ( -0.03) | 17.52% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 51.96% ( -0.06) | 48.04% ( 0.07) |
| 70.56% ( -0.97) | 29.44% ( 0.98) |
