Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Yokohama F Marinos win with a probability of 55.28%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 22.59% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Yokohama F Marinos win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.87%) and 0-2 (8.52%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 2-1 (5.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Yokohama F Marinos would win this match.
0.27) 
-0.69) 
