A scrappy 1-0 win would do Villarreal here, as it is a result and not a performance that they need most at this moment in time. Alaves are capable of making it an uncomfortable match, but we believe that the home side will have enough quality to secure a much-needed three points on Sunday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 49.29%. A win for Alaves had a probability of 25.66% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.45%) and 2-0 (8.82%). The likeliest Alaves win was 0-1 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.
0.47) 
-0.07) 
