This is a huge match at the bottom of the table, and those involved in the relegation battle will certainly be hoping for an Elche win. Almeria's home form this season has been strong, though, and we are expecting La Union to secure a vital three points, relegating Elche in the process.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almeria win with a probability of 53.46%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Elche had a probability of 21.93%.
The most likely scoreline for an Almeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.69%), while for a Elche win it was 0-1 (7.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Almeria would win this match.
0.52) 
-0.12) 
