SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 84.22%. A draw had a probability of 9.9% and a win for Almeria had a probability of 5.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 3-0 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.06%) and 3-1 (7.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.16%), while for an Almeria win it was 1-2 (1.82%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Real Madrid | Draw | Almeria |
84.22% ( -0.92) | 9.88% ( 0.53) | 5.9% ( 0.39) |
| Both teams to score 56.37% ( -0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 79.86% ( -1.18) | 20.14% ( 1.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 61.7% ( -1.7) | 38.3% ( 1.7) |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 96.64% ( -0.3) | 3.36% ( 0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 85.23% ( -1.05) | 14.77% ( 1.05) |
| Almeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.33% ( 0.01) | 41.67% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.85% ( 0.01) | 78.15% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Real Madrid | Draw | Almeria |
| 3-0 @ 9.12% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 8.06% ( 0.31)3-1 @ 7.98% ( 0.1)4-0 @ 7.73% ( -0.12)2-1 @ 7.06% ( 0.28)4-1 @ 6.77% ( -0.11)5-0 @ 5.25% ( -0.23)1-0 @ 4.75% ( 0.31)5-1 @ 4.59% ( -0.2)3-2 @ 3.49% ( 0.04)6-0 @ 2.97% ( -0.22)4-2 @ 2.96% ( -0.04)6-1 @ 2.6% ( -0.19)5-2 @ 2.01% ( -0.09)7-0 @ 1.44% ( -0.15)7-1 @ 1.26% ( -0.13)6-2 @ 1.14% ( -0.08)Other @ 5.03% Total : 84.22% | 1-1 @ 4.16% ( 0.27) 2-2 @ 3.09% ( 0.12)0-0 @ 1.4% ( 0.13)3-3 @ 1.02% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.21% Total : 9.88% | 1-2 @ 1.82% ( 0.12) 0-1 @ 1.23% ( 0.11)2-3 @ 0.9% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.95% Total : 5.9% |
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