Elche are heading back down to the Segunda Division for the 2023-24 campaign, and this will be a very difficult match against a Rayo side pushing towards the top six. We are actually expecting this to be a comfortable victory for the visitors, who were excellent against Barcelona last time out.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 47%. A win for Elche had a probability of 26.8% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.13%) and 0-2 (8.77%). The likeliest Elche win was 1-0 (8.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.
0.36) 
-0.51) 
