SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Girona win with a probability of 44.8%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 30.35% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Girona win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.18%) and 2-0 (7.37%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (7.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Girona would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Girona | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
44.8% ( 0.08) | 24.84% ( 0.44) | 30.35% ( -0.51) |
| Both teams to score 56.39% ( -1.77) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.39% ( -2.19) | 46.61% ( 2.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.12% ( -2.09) | 68.88% ( 2.09) |
| Girona Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.14% ( -0.87) | 20.86% ( 0.87) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.45% ( -1.38) | 53.55% ( 1.38) |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.26% ( -1.43) | 28.74% ( 1.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.42% ( -1.82) | 64.58% ( 1.82) |
| Score Analysis |
| Girona | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
| 1-0 @ 9.4% ( 0.61) 2-1 @ 9.18% ( -0)2-0 @ 7.37% ( 0.29)3-1 @ 4.8% ( -0.13)3-0 @ 3.85% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 2.99% ( -0.21)4-1 @ 1.88% ( -0.1)4-0 @ 1.51% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.17% ( -0.12)Other @ 2.66% Total : 44.8% | 1-1 @ 11.71% ( 0.31) 0-0 @ 6% ( 0.54)2-2 @ 5.72% ( -0.23)3-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.14)Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.84% | 0-1 @ 7.48% ( 0.39) 1-2 @ 7.3% ( -0.1)0-2 @ 4.66% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 3.04% ( -0.17)2-3 @ 2.38% ( -0.2)0-3 @ 1.94% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.09)Other @ 2.62% Total : 30.35% |
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