Athletic have the third-best home record in La Liga this season, while Leganes have only managed one away victory during the 2024-25 campaign. We are expecting a tricky Leganes outfit to make this a tough match for Athletic, but the Basque outfit should be able to navigate their way to another important three points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 51.15%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Leganes had a probability of 23.17%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.89%) and 2-1 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.13%), while for a Leganes win it was 0-1 (7.9%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood.
0.09) 
-0.04) 
