We are not expecting Saturday's clash to be a high-scoring affair, and it would not be a complete shock to see a goalless draw, but Atletico, with home advantage, should be able to return to winning ways against an inconsistent Real Sociedad.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 55.77%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Real Sociedad had a probability of 21.45%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.87%) and 2-0 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.76%), while for a Real Sociedad win it was 0-1 (5.87%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
0.34) 
-0.38) 
