We said: Barcelona 2-1 Athletic Bilbao
Barcelona have won 19 of their last 23 home matches against Athletic in all competitions, and it is difficult to ignore that record when picking a result here. Athletic were excellent last time out against Real Sociedad, but we are expecting Barcelona to make it three straight victories with a narrow success at Camp Nou.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 63.17%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 14.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.89%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.41%), while for an Athletic Bilbao win it was 0-1 (5.74%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
