There is no question that Sevilla will be thinking about the second leg of their Europa League semi-final, which should hand Real Valladolid an advantage. The home side's recent form is a concern, though, and we are therefore struggling to back them to win, instead settling on a low-scoring draw.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Valladolid win with a probability of 36.3%. A win for Sevilla had a probability of 35.95% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Valladolid win was 1-0 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.84%) and 2-0 (6.58%). The likeliest Sevilla win was 0-1 (10.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.
-0.05) 
0.08) 
