With the stakes high for both teams, we expect plenty of nerves to be on show at Pride Park. However, while we would have backed Derby at any other stage of the season, we are now predicting a Barnsley win, one which will take them closer to a once unthinkable survival in this division. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 45.45%. A win for Barnsley had a probability of 27.67% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.89%) and 2-0 (8.63%). The likeliest Barnsley win was 0-1 (9.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Barnsley
45.45%	26.88%	27.67%

Both teams to score 48.44%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.81%

56.19%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.75%

77.25%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.35%

24.65%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.83%

59.17%

Barnsley Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.29%

35.71%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.51%

72.49%

Score Analysis

Derby County 45.44%

Barnsley 27.67%

Draw 26.87%

Derby County	Draw	Barnsley
1-0 @ 12.32% 2-1 @ 8.89% 2-0 @ 8.63% 3-1 @ 4.15% 3-0 @ 4.03% 3-2 @ 2.14% 4-1 @ 1.45% 4-0 @ 1.41% Other @ 2.43% Total : 45.44%	1-1 @ 12.69% 0-0 @ 8.81% 2-2 @ 4.58% Other @ 0.8% Total : 26.87%	0-1 @ 9.07% 1-2 @ 6.54% 0-2 @ 4.67% 1-3 @ 2.24% 0-3 @ 1.6% 2-3 @ 1.57% Other @ 1.99% Total : 27.67%