Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 38.41%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 35.03% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.34%) and 2-0 (6.68%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 0-1 (9.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.
0.01) 
-0.02) 
