After a close encounter between these two at the Kassam Stadium in November last year, in which they shared the spoils of the points, we forecast a similar outcome in Lancashire on Saturday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 37.54%. A win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 36.5% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.31%) and 0-2 (6.27%). The likeliest Fleetwood Town win was 1-0 (9.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.
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