Despite their defeat against Ipswich, Morecambe have enjoyed a good run of form that they will have taken confidence from.
Bristol Rovers have lost their last two matches 2-0, so we think this will be a closely-fought contest.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bristol Rovers win with a probability of 37.48%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 36.52% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bristol Rovers win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.3%) and 0-2 (6.27%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-0 (9.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.34%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Morecambe would win this match.
0.21) 
-0.02) 
