Bristol Rovers have been in very good form recently, but given that Plymouth Argyle are the highest-ranked side in the competition, it would be unwise to bet against them.
Games involving the Pilgrims have not contained many goals as of late, so it would not be a surprise if the game went all the way to penalties in a stalemate, but we think that they will eke out a 1-0 victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bristol Rovers win with a probability of 39.84%. A win for Plymouth Argyle had a probability of 35.98% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bristol Rovers win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.58%) and 2-0 (5.89%). The likeliest Plymouth Argyle win was 1-2 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Plymouth Argyle would win this match.
0.46) 
-0.49) 
