Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barnsley win with a probability of 47.47%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 26.56% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barnsley win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.2%) and 0-2 (8.79%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 1-0 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Barnsley would win this match.
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