Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 39.9%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 32.48% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.28%) and 2-0 (7.41%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 0-1 (10.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Port Vale in this match.
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