Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 63.05%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Burton Albion had a probability of 16.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.94%) and 1-0 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.55%), while for a Burton Albion win it was 1-2 (4.61%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.