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League One | Gameweek 11
Oct 3, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
University of Bolton Stadium
S

Bolton
3 - 2
Stevenage

Charles (13' pen.), Iredale (49'), Sheehan (70')
Thomason (28'), Iredale (44'), Jerome (64')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Reid (20', 65' pen.)
Reid (68'), Sweeney (69')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Stevenage 1-3 Oxford Utd
Saturday, September 30 at 3pm in League One

We said: Bolton Wanderers 2-2 Stevenage

Stevenage would have been disappointed to lose 3-1 to Oxford on Saturday, but we think that they will respond by picking up a point in Tuesday's tricky contest against a Bolton side who are unbeaten in four competitive home games. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 39.33%. A win for Stevenage had a probability of 34.81% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.55%) and 2-0 (6.6%). The likeliest Stevenage win was 0-1 (8.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bolton Wanderers would win this match.

Result
Bolton WanderersDrawStevenage
39.33% (0.022999999999996 0.02) 25.86% (-0.266 -0.27) 34.81% (0.246 0.25)
Both teams to score 54.55% (0.936 0.94)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.31% (1.183 1.18)49.68% (-1.181 -1.18)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.3% (1.049 1.05)71.7% (-1.047 -1.05)
Bolton Wanderers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.15% (0.548 0.55)24.85% (-0.547 -0.55)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.55% (0.758 0.76)59.44% (-0.756 -0.76)
Stevenage Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.59% (0.72199999999999 0.72)27.4% (-0.721 -0.72)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.12% (0.925 0.92)62.88% (-0.921 -0.92)
Score Analysis
    Bolton Wanderers 39.33%
    Stevenage 34.81%
    Draw 25.85%
Bolton WanderersDrawStevenage
1-0 @ 9.48% (-0.308 -0.31)
2-1 @ 8.55% (0.035 0.04)
2-0 @ 6.6% (-0.108 -0.11)
3-1 @ 3.97% (0.078 0.08)
3-0 @ 3.06% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-2 @ 2.57% (0.101 0.1)
4-1 @ 1.38% (0.049 0.05)
4-0 @ 1.07% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 2.66%
Total : 39.33%
1-1 @ 12.27% (-0.14 -0.14)
0-0 @ 6.81% (-0.333 -0.33)
2-2 @ 5.53% (0.133 0.13)
3-3 @ 1.11% (0.065 0.07)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.85%
0-1 @ 8.81% (-0.246 -0.25)
1-2 @ 7.94% (0.068 0.07)
0-2 @ 5.71% (-0.041 -0.04)
1-3 @ 3.43% (0.098 0.1)
0-3 @ 2.46% (0.032 0.03)
2-3 @ 2.39% (0.104 0.1)
1-4 @ 1.11% (0.053 0.05)
Other @ 2.96%
Total : 34.81%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Port Vale 0-1 Bolton
Saturday, September 30 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Bolton 8-1 Man Utd U21s
Tuesday, September 26 at 7.45pm in EFL Trophy
Last Game: Bolton 1-1 Peterborough
Saturday, September 23 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Reading 2-1 Bolton
Saturday, September 16 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Bolton 3-0 Salford City
Tuesday, September 5 at 7.45pm in EFL Trophy
Last Game: Bolton 2-1 Derby
Saturday, September 2 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Stevenage 1-3 Oxford Utd
Saturday, September 30 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Cheltenham 0-3 Stevenage
Saturday, September 23 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Stevenage 1-1 Charlton
Saturday, September 16 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Stevenage 2-2 Carlisle
Saturday, September 9 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: AFC Wimbledon 1-1 Stevenage (6-5 pen.)
Tuesday, September 5 at 7pm in EFL Trophy
Last Game: Leyton Orient 0-3 Stevenage
Saturday, September 2 at 3pm in League One


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