Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cheltenham Town win with a probability of 42.12%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 31.43% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cheltenham Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (7.52%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 0-1 (9.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cheltenham Town would win this match.
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