Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colchester United win with a probability of 44.29%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 27.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colchester United win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.77%) and 2-1 (8.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.01%), while for a Crewe Alexandra win it was 0-1 (9.98%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Colchester United would win this match.
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