Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crewe Alexandra win with a probability of 38.42%. A win for Colchester United had a probability of 33.44% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crewe Alexandra win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Colchester United win was 0-1 (10.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Crewe Alexandra in this match.
0.36) 
-0.18) 
