Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 38.98%. A win for Colchester United had a probability of 32.86% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.05%) and 0-2 (7.34%). The likeliest Colchester United win was 1-0 (10.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.
0.04) 
-0.14) 
