Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 52.94%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Colchester United had a probability of 20.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.91%) and 2-1 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.12%), while for a Colchester United win it was 0-1 (8.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Newport County in this match.
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