The hosts' recent performances in the FA Cup and the fact that they remain unbeaten under new manager Graham Coughlan mean that they should have the edge over the visitors.
Taking Colchester's poor away form in the competition over the past few years and the fact that they have failed to win in their last five matches in all competitions this season, it is hard to argue the case for the away team.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 55.29%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Colchester United had a probability of 19.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.1%) and 2-1 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.7%), while for a Colchester United win it was 0-1 (7.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.
-0.11) 
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