Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colchester United win with a probability of 37.67%. A win for Sutton United had a probability of 33.91% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colchester United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.84%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Sutton United win was 0-1 (11.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Colchester United would win this match.
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