Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Morecambe win with a probability of 42.49%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 30.72% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Morecambe win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.71%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (9.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.
0.12) 
-0.14) 
