Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gillingham win with a probability of 37.46%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 36.44% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gillingham win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.29%) and 0-2 (6.3%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 1-0 (9.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.
-0.82) 
0.02) 
