Gillingham have only beaten Walsall twice since September 2007, and we are finding it difficult to back an away victory here despite the team's position in the table. Walsall last two results have been disappointing, but they held MK Dons last time out at home in the league, and we are backing another draw here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Walsall win with a probability of 39.08%. A win for Gillingham had a probability of 34.12% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Walsall win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (6.92%). The likeliest Gillingham win was 0-1 (9.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Walsall would win this match.
0.1) 
-0.03) 
