SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 45.48%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 30.22% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.83%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 1-2 (7.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newport County | Draw | Crewe Alexandra |
45.48% ( 0.01) | 24.3% ( -0) | 30.22% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 58.18% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.76% ( 0.01) | 44.24% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.39% ( 0.01) | 66.61% ( -0.01) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.4% ( 0.01) | 19.6% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 48.47% ( 0.01) | 51.53% ( -0.01) |
| Crewe Alexandra Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.36% ( 0) | 27.64% ( -0) |
