SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wrexham win with a probability of 57.96%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 21.4% and a draw had a probability of 20.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wrexham win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.94%) and 1-0 (7.48%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-2 (5.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Wrexham would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Wrexham | Draw | Newport County |
57.96% ( -0.25) | 20.63% ( 0.11) | 21.4% ( 0.14) |
| Both teams to score 62.12% ( -0.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.96% ( -0.33) | 35.04% ( 0.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.97% ( -0.37) | 57.03% ( 0.37) |
| Wrexham Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.02% ( -0.17) | 11.98% ( 0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.61% ( -0.37) | 37.39% ( 0.37) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.57% ( -0.06) | 29.43% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.58% ( -0.08) | 65.42% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wrexham | Draw | Newport County |
| 2-1 @ 9.71% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.94% ( 0.02)1-0 @ 7.48% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 6.87% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 5.61% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 4.2% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 3.64% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 2.98% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 2.23% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 1.55% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 1.26% ( -0.02)5-2 @ 0.95% ( -0.02)4-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.64% Total : 57.96% | 1-1 @ 9.15% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 5.94% ( -0)0-0 @ 3.52% ( 0.06)3-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.31% Total : 20.63% | 1-2 @ 5.6% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 4.31% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 2.64% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.42% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.28% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.08% Total : 21.4% |
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