Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 62.9%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Oldham Athletic had a probability of 14.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.64%) and 2-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.43%), while for a Oldham Athletic win it was 0-1 (5.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Port Vale would win this match.