Unlike their meeting earlier in the season, this is likely to be a tight encounter between two sides fighting for the same goal come May. Both have been very impressive for much of this campaign, but the recent form of Port Vale, as well as their home advantage, is swaying us towards a narrow home victory on Saturday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 48.98%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Sutton United had a probability of 24.53%.

The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.58%) and 2-1 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.45%), while for a Sutton United win it was 0-1 (8.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Port Vale would win this match.

Result
Port Vale	Draw	Sutton United
48.98%	26.49%	24.53%

Both teams to score 47.05%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.26%

56.74%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.31%

77.69%

Port Vale Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.77%

23.23%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.86%

57.14%

Sutton United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.29%

38.71%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.55%

75.45%

Score Analysis

Port Vale 48.97%

Sutton United 24.53%

Draw 26.48%

Port Vale	Draw	Sutton United
1-0 @ 13.12% 2-0 @ 9.58% 2-1 @ 9.09% 3-0 @ 4.66% 3-1 @ 4.42% 3-2 @ 2.1% 4-0 @ 1.7% 4-1 @ 1.62% Other @ 2.68% Total : 48.97%	1-1 @ 12.45% 0-0 @ 8.99% 2-2 @ 4.32% Other @ 0.73% Total : 26.48%	0-1 @ 8.53% 1-2 @ 5.91% 0-2 @ 4.05% 1-3 @ 1.87% 2-3 @ 1.37% 0-3 @ 1.28% Other @ 1.52% Total : 24.53%