Although Port Vale have lost their last two matches, we think that the possibility of moving back into the top three will drive them to a narrow victory over a Newport side who have won just one of their last seven games.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 42.82%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 30.02% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.66%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (9.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.
