In a crucial game in the playoff race, we expect a cagey encounter as both sides look to avoid giving up key chances.
We cannot quite pick a winner and instead opt for a share of the spoils at Vale Park, as the visitors should have enough to leave with a point given their form since the turn of the year.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 43.66%. A win for Mansfield Town had a probability of 28.73% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (8.41%). The likeliest Mansfield Town win was 0-1 (9.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Port Vale would win this match.
