Playing Wimbledon seems to bring out the best in Sutton United, who are unbeaten in their last four matches against them in all competitions, and we expect the experience of being in so many close encounters at this tournament last season will give the Us an edge on Tuesday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 41.21%. A win for Sutton United had a probability of 32.5% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.69%) and 2-0 (7.22%). The likeliest Sutton United win was 0-1 (8.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for AFC Wimbledon in this match.
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